Smoke Forecast for Tuesday, September 9, 2025 9:30 AM

Current Conditions

A slow-moving area of low pressure will spread clouds and precipitation across the region the next 48-hours.

The Ulm Creek fire, burning just west of Trout Creek, Montana, is much less active than the prior week.  It has grown to 2,529 acres and is 10% contained. The Knowles fire burning near Paradise, Montana, has burned 3,816 acres. The blaze is now 60% contained. The Devil Mountain and Windy Rock fires, burning 15 miles northeast of Drummond, were active again on Monday. The Devil Mountain fire has burned 1,932 acres and the Windy Rock has grown to 5,508 acres and is 14% contained.  The Ransome fire, burning just north of Libby, remained active on Monday. It has grown to 701 acres and is 29% contained. The Timber Butte fire, burning just west of Dell, Montana, was less active on Monday. It has burned 2,245 acres and is 56% contained. There are several active wildfires burning in central and northern Idaho. The biggest of concern for Montana’s air quality are the East, Mire, Rhoda Creek, Big Bear and Rush wildfires.

At 9:00 AM Tuesday, Columbia Falls, Libby, Frenchtown, Great Falls, Lewistown, Billings, Broadus, Miles City, Glasgow, and Sidney's air quality is Moderate.

By Wednesday afternoon, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) smoke model shows surface smoke covering much of the state from regional wildfires.

Source: HRRR-smoke

Forecast

Fire behavior across Idaho and Montana remains active despite clouds, recent precipitation, and cooler temperatures. A large, slow-moving area of low pressure will crawl east across the region the 48-hours, spreading clouds and scattered showers to the area. The massive Garnet fire, burning in central California, will spread smoke into the Treasure State. However, much of the smoke from this fire will be elevated, with limited impacts to surface monitors. Expect hazy skies across the state from regional wildfires.

On Wednesday, the center of the low approaches Montana. Monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will interact with the low-pressure system, providing increasing chances for beneficial precipitation. A southwesterly flow aloft will continue to transport smoke from regional wildfires into Montana.

By Thursday and Friday, the center of the low moves over the state. This will provide clouds and cooler temperatures for the area, helping to moderate fire behavior and limit smoke production. This is also the window of time with the best chances for rain and thunderstorms. The precipitation from this event will slow wildfire season and reduce smoke production. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely to put the nail in the coffin on wildfires this season. Stay tuned!

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Tuesday morning’s satellite image reveals smoke covering much of the state from regional wildfires.

Source: NOAA

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025