Smoke Forecast for Monday, September 15, 2025 10:00 AM

Current Conditions

An area of low pressure will shift east across the state on Monday, providing showers and cooler temperatures.

The Ulm Creek fire, burning just west of Trout Creek, Montana, received some rain over the weekend.  It has grown to 2,928 acres and is 10% contained. The Isabella fire, burning in the Cabinet Mountains just north of Noxon, remains active despite recent precipitation. It has burned 859 acres and is 0% contained. The Windy Rock fire, burning 15 miles northeast of Drummond, remains active despite recent precipitation. The Windy Rock has grown to 6,025 acres and is 43% contained.  The Ransome fire, burning just north of Libby, was less active over the weekend. It has grown to 701 acres and is 31% contained. The Timber Butte fire, burning just west of Dell, Montana, was less active over the weekend. It has burned 2,245 acres and is 70% contained. There are several active wildfires burning in central and northern Idaho. The biggest of concern for Montana’s air quality are the Walk, Rhoda Creek, and Twin wildfires. Despite recent precipitation, fire activity remains moderate on these wildfires.

At 9:00 AM Monday, Libby, Columbia Falls, Sleeping Giant, and Broadus’ air quality is Moderate.

By Tuesday afternoon, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) smoke model shows light surface smoke much of the state from Canadian wildfires.

Source: HRRR-smoke

Forecast

Low pressure over Montana on Monday shifts east, bringing additional precipitation and much cooler air. Much of the region received beneficial precipitation over the weekend, helping to moderate fire behavior and limit smoke production. Northerly transport winds will keep some light surface smoke across much of the state from Canadian wildfires through Tuesday.

Ridging will build over the state beginning on Tuesday. It will provide mainly dry conditions for the state, with high temperatures running between 5-10 degrees above normal. Fire activity will perk up on regional wildfires in this pattern. However, a decreasing fall sun angle is reducing solar radiation and should help limit acres burned in the coming days.

By the upcoming weekend, a southwesterly flow will return to the Treasure State. It will pump monsoonal moisture into the region. This will provide scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the state. It will also produce slightly cooler temperatures and gusty afternoon winds. Stay tuned!

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Monday morning’s satellite image shows clouds covering much of the state thanks to an upper-level area of low pressure.

Source: NOAA

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025