Smoke Forecast for Friday, September 12, 2025 9:00 AM

Current Conditions

Low pressure will crawl slowly across the state Friday and into the weekend, producing scattered showers and a few storms.

The Ulm Creek fire, burning just west of Trout Creek, Montana, is much less active than the prior week.  It has grown to 2,847 acres and is 10% contained. The Isabella fire, burning in the Cabinet Mountains just north of Noxon, remains active. It has burned 770 acres and is 0% contained. The Devil Mountain and Windy Rock fires, burning 15 miles northeast of Drummond, were active again on Thursday despite the higher humidity and precipitation. The Devil Mountain fire has burned 1,932 acres and the Windy Rock has grown to 6,022 acres and is 32% contained.  The Ransome fire, burning just north of Libby, remained active on Thursday. It has grown to 701 acres and is 31% contained. The Timber Butte fire, burning just west of Dell, Montana, was less active on Thursday. It has burned 2,245 acres and is 70% contained. There are several active wildfires burning in central and northern Idaho. The biggest of concern for Montana’s air quality are the East, Mire, Twin, Rhoda Creek, Big Bear, and Island Creek wildfires. Despite recent precipitation, fire activity remains moderate on most of these wildfires.

At 9:00 AM Friday, Libby, Great Falls, Malta, Sidney, Glasgow, and Broadus’ air quality is Moderate.

By Saturday afternoon, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) smoke model shows light surface smoke covering northwest Montana from regional wildfires.

Source: HRRR-smoke

Forecast

Scattered showers and storms are possible once again over much of the state on Friday. Despite the recent precipitation and higher humidity levels, numerous fires in Idaho and western Montana remain active. Precipitation will become more widespread Friday afternoon thanks to the destabilizing influences from the afternoon sun.

By Saturday, the low moves into eastern Montana. It will generate widely isolated showers and storms, but much of the weekend will be dry for the valleys. On Sunday, if there’s enough clearing, there could be some pockets of morning fog. Some light surface smoke from regional wildfires will be transported into western Montana over the weekend.

Longer range models continue to advertise another trough moving into the area Sunday afternoon and Monday. It will produce a round of showers and storms across the Treasure State. Higher humidity, precipitation, and a decreasing fall sun angle should moderate fire behavior and limit smoke production. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a transient ridge builds, providing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This could lead to more active fire behavior on regional wildfires. Stay tuned!

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Friday morning’s satellite image shows clouds covering much of the state thanks to an upper-level area of low pressure.

Source: NOAA

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025