Smoke Forecast for Thursday, September 11, 2025 9:30 AM

Current Conditions

An area of low pressure will crawl slowly across the state, producing beneficial precipitation and helping to reduce smoke production on regional wildfires.

The Ulm Creek fire, burning just west of Trout Creek, Montana, is much less active than the prior week.  It has grown to 2,713 acres and is 10% contained. The Isabella fire, burning in the Cabinet Mountains just north of Noxon, remains active. It has burned 770 acres and is 0% contained. The Devil Mountain and Windy Rock fires, burning 15 miles northeast of Drummond, were active again on Wednesday despite the higher humidity and precipitation. The Devil Mountain fire has burned 1,932 acres and the Windy Rock has grown to 6,031 acres and is 26% contained.  The Ransome fire, burning just north of Libby, remained active on Wednesday. It has grown to 701 acres and is 31% contained. The Timber Butte fire, burning just west of Dell, Montana, was less active on Wednesday. It has burned 2,245 acres and is 70% contained. There are several active wildfires burning in central and northern Idaho. The biggest of concern for Montana’s air quality are the East, Mire, Twin, Rhoda Creek, Big Bear, and Island Creek wildfires. Despite recent precipitation, fire activity remains moderate on most of these wildfires.

At 9:00 AM Thursday, Helena, Great Falls, Cut Bank, Columbia Falls, Malta, and Sidney's air quality is Moderate.

By Friday afternoon, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) smoke model shows light surface smoke covering much of the state from regional wildfires.

Source: HRRR-smoke

Forecast

An upper-level low will slowly move east across the Northern Rockies Thursday and Friday. It will generate scattered showers and storms. A few of the storms could produce strong outflow winds that could generate erratic fire behavior. The storms will tend to be less intense than they have been, but precipitation will be more widespread on Thursday compared to prior days. Higher humidity, cooler air, and precipitation will help to moderate fire behavior and reduce smoke production.

By this weekend, humidity levels will remain elevated thanks to the upper-level trough remaining in place over the state. A few isolated showers and storms are possible, but widespread precipitation is unlikely. There will be a brief break early Sunday before the next trough approaches from the west by Sunday evening.

Starting early next week, a strong upper-level low moves over the Northern Rockies. It will produce daily scattered showers and storms. The combination of higher humidity levels and precipitation should help to slow fire growth and limit smoke on regional wildfires. Stay tuned!

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Thursday morning’s satellite image shows clouds covering much of the state thanks to an upper-level area of low pressure.

Source: NOAA

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025