Smoke Forecast for Thursday, August 21 2025 9:30 AM
Current Conditions
Warm air and gusty winds led to active fire behavior on many regional blazes again on Wednesday.
The Knowles and Mile Marker 91 fires burning near Paradise, Montana, were active again on Wednesday. A northwesterly flow on Thursday should send smoke from this blaze into Lake and Missoula Counties at times. Two wildfires burning in the Tobacco Root Mountains continue to expand. Expect some downstream impacts in the coming days from the Bivens Creek and Cloudrest fires. The West Fork fire burning just north of Hebgen Lake was very active on Wednesday. It will send smoke on Thursday into northern portions of Yellowstone National Park. The Windy Rock fire, burning 15 miles northeast of Drummond, is expected to grow in the coming days. It is up to 1,316 acres and is 0% contained. The Helena Valley will see additional impacts from this fire again on Thursday. The Sandbar 2 fire, burning 15 miles east of Lincoln, was discovered on Tuesday. It is expected to expand in the next 48-hours.
At 9:00 AM Thursday, Frenchtown, Hamilton, Dillon, and Great Falls’ air quality is Moderate.
By Friday evening, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) smoke model shows easterly transport winds pushing smoke from regional wildfires off to the west.
Source: HRRR-smoke
Forecast
Seasonably warm conditions are anticipated on Thursday with afternoon highs climbing well into the 80s for most valleys. Several wildfires across the state remain active and communities adjacent to these blazes will see smoke impacts again on Thursday. Afternoon transport winds will be out of the northwest which will send smoke into communities downwind of the Island Creek fire like Ravalli and Beaverhead Counties. Towns adjacent to the Windy Rock and the fires burning in the Tobacco Roots should expect to see additional smoke impacts in the next 48-hours, as fire behavior on these blazes remains active.
An easterly flow develops Thursday night and Friday. As a result, smoke models show impacts from the Windy Rock fire moving into places like the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys by Friday afternoon. Most of the smoke from the fires burning in central Idaho will stay west of the Treasure State.
A robust area of high pressure builds over the state this weekend. It will result in much warmer air with afternoon highs surging well into the 80s and 90s. There were numerous dry and wet lightning strikes across the state the last few evenings. With receptive fuel moistures and seasonably warm air, there will likely be new fire starts emerging in the next 48-hours. Monsoonal moisture will creep northward by Sunday and Monday, providing an outside chance for showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the southern half of the state. Stay tuned!
Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.
Thursday’s air quality worm plots show that the monitor in Hamilton saw a surge in PM2.5 Wednesday evening from wildfires burning in central Idaho.
Source: DEQ Analysis
| Incident Name | State | Location | Acres | Containment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunset Fire | Idaho | 26 Miles N of Coeur d'Alene, ID | 3208 | 6% |
| Rock Fire | Idaho | 5 miles southwest of Donnelly, ID | 2797 | 0% |
| Island Creek | Idaho | Near Sob Point on the Moose Creek Ranger District. | 1682 | 5% |
| Lightning Creek Fire | Idaho | 9 miles north of Clark Fork, ID | 2515 | 25% |
| Mire | Idaho | Approximately 22 miles West/NW of Powell Idaho | 100 | 0% |
| Rush | Idaho | 57 Miles NW of McCall, Idaho - Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness | 7539 | 90% |
| Big Bear | Idaho | 59 Miles NE of McCall, Idaho - Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness | 15217 | 70% |
| Elkhorn Fire | Idaho | Krassel Ranger District, Payette National Forest | 26048 | 0% |
| Shingle | Idaho | NA | 100 | 55% |
| Cedar Fire | Idaho | approximately 4 miles northeast of Clyde | 898 | 86% |
| Elkhorn Fire | Idaho | 45 Miles E of Challis, ID | 953 | 0% |
| Bivens Creek | Montana | 15 Miles North of Virginia City, MT | 2267 | 0% |
| Cloudrest | Montana | 15 Miles northwest of Virginia City, MT | 1190 | 0% |
| Windy Rock Fire | Montana | 15 Miles NE of Drummond, MT | 1316 | 0% |
| West Fork Fire | Montana | Custer Gallatin National Forest | 650 | 5% |
| Knowles Fire | Montana | 11 Miles E of Plains, MT | 2000 | 0% |
| McAllister Fire | Montana | Madison County, 3 miles south of Norris, 3 miles north of Ennis Lake | 3500 | 50% |
| Horn Fire | Montana | Madison County, between Cliff Lake and Highway 87 | 2800 | 95% |
| Sandbar 2 Fire | Montana | 15 miles east of Lincoln, Montana; north of Montana State Highway 279 and Flesher Pass | 190 | 0% |
| Gill Gulch Fire | Montana | 7 Miles south of Lincoln, MT | 34 | 50% |
| Butte Creek | Oregon | 2 miles west of Simnasho, Oregon | 2079 | 85% |
| Hagelstein Fire | Oregon | 14 miles north of Klamath Falls, Oregon | 669 | 75% |
| Elk Fire | Oregon | 7 miles SW of Beatty, Oregon | 2637 | 95% |
| Crescent Road | Washington | 7 Miles N of Reardan, WA | 881 | 95% |
| Bear Gulch Fire | Washington | 10 Miles Northwest of Hoodsport, WA | 8373 | 7% |
| Pomas Fire | Washington | Approximately 36 miles northwest of Entiat, WA | 3533 | 0% |
| Bear Creek II | Washington | 18 miles N of Keller, WA | 267 | 70% |
| Castle Rock Fire | Washington | 6 Miles SE of Colville, WA | 58 | 99% |
| Red Canyon Fire | Wyoming | Hot Springs County | 126683 | 31% |
| Sleeper Ranch Fire | Wyoming | Park County, Wyoming | 18298 | 0% |
| Vees Fire | Wyoming | 13 Miles South of Ten Sleep, WY. 45 Miles Southeast of Worland, WY. | 5229 | 94% |
Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025