Smoke Forecast for Wednesday, August 6, 2025, 11:00 AM

Current Conditions

A couple of active fires in Idaho will continue to transport smoke into Montana on Wednesday.

The Lightning Creek fire, which started last Wednesday just east of Sandpoint, Idaho, has grown to 2,417 acres. It is 0% contained. The fire grew rapidly over the weekend and into the beginning of the week. It has sent a plume of smoke into parts of Lincoln and Flathead Counties. The Big Bear and Rush fires continue to burn in the Bitterroot Range of central Idaho, just southwest of the Bitterroot Valley. The Big Bear fire has grown to 14,935 acres and is 50% contained, while the Rush fire is up to 7,392 acres and is 90% contained. Recent precipitation, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity continue to limit smoke production on these blazes.

At 10:30 AM Wednesday, Broadus, Great Falls, and Libby’s air quality is Moderate.

By Wednesday afternoon, the HRRR smoke model shows surface smoke from the multiple Idaho fires drifting throughout Montana.

Source: HRRR-smoke

Forecast

Smoke models continue to show the Lightning Creek fire, burning just east of Sandpoint, Idaho, remaining active again on Wednesday. It will send smoke into northwest Montana, particularly Lincoln and Flathead Counties. Weather patterns stabilized yesterday and today, with more showers and cool temperatures expected towards the end of the week.

A zonal flow developed across the Treasure State yesterday and today. It will allow afternoon highs to slowly moderate. The gradual warm-up and gusty afternoon winds will lead to more active fire behavior and increased smoke production on the Big Bear and Lightning Creek fires burning just across the border from Montana in Idaho. Communities downwind of these fires, like the Bitterroot Valley and northwest Montana, could see an uptick in surface smoke from this pattern.

Drier air has settled in with brief ridging through today. Southwest flow today imports mid-level moisture but with limited lift and instability. Westerly winds pick up this afternoon ahead of the cold front tonight. Some showers may gradually increase throughout western Montana tonight. Model forecasts have the low center arriving over the region tomorrow. In the meantime, we get a break from thunderstorms today, then later in the week they return.

A trough will march across the Northern Rockies starting tomorrow into the weekend. It will be accompanied by gusty winds and widespread showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow afternoon, instability will allow for a few strong storms to produce gusty outflow winds, hail, and some light snow at higher elevations. Temperatures are expected to cool significantly, with afternoon temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average. The combination of cooler air and precipitation should help moderate fire behavior and reduce smoke production on regional blazes. Thankfully, fuel moistures remain anomalously wet throughout the state, except for portions of southwest Montana, which are closer to average. This will tend to limit new fire starts and slow the spread of existing wildfires. Stay tuned!

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Source: NOAA

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025