Smoke Forecast for Thursday, June 12 2025, 9:30 AM
Current Conditions
An unusually active fire season across western Canada continues to fill northeastern Montana skies with smoke. However, compared to 24-hours ago, air quality values have started to improve as a weak area of low pressure moves over eastern Montana. Fire crews have made significant progress on the Hilger Valley fire, about 20 miles north of Helena, over the last 48-hours. The fire is now 40% contained.
At 9:00 AM Thursday, Glasgow had air quality that was considered Unhealthy. Cut Bank, Choteau, Malta, Havre, Sidney, and Miles City had air quality that was considered Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Libby, Columbia Falls, Frenchtown, Lewistown, Great Falls, and Glendive’s air quality are Moderate.
The HRRR smoke model shows significantly less surface smoke over northeastern Montana by Friday afternoon.
Source: HRRR-smoke
Forecast
The HRRR smoke model continues to advertise diminishing surface smoke across northeastern Montana on Thursday thanks to an area of low pressure drifting across the state. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible once again across the Treasure State on Thursday, with the greatest precipitation amounts focused on the mountains.
The wildfire season in western Canada is off to a historically fast start. More than 7.8 million acres have already burned according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, an amount greater than the annual average for the country. Recent precipitation over western Canada has begun to slightly reduce smoke production on existing wildfires. Despite this precipitation, Canadian wildfire smoke will remain a concern for Montanans in the weeks and months ahead. Anytime the flow becomes northerly, Montanans can expect occasional intrusions of wildfire smoke into the state.
Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.
An area of low pressure has begun to scour out surface smoke over parts of northeastern Montana.
Source: NOAA
Summary
Low pressure moving across the state on Thursday will result in reductions in surface smoke concentrations. A series of storms will provide beneficial rainfall for the region into the weekend.
Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025