Smoke Forecast for Thursday, October 10, 2024 9:30 AM

October 10 2024

Current Conditions

Clouds and cooler temperatures will help to moderate fire behavior on existing wildfires on Thursday. Smoke and haze will still be a concern, particularly over portions of Southwest Montana.

There are numerous active wildfires still burning in the Central Idaho mountains. This combined with a couple of wildfires in Montana will keep smoke and haze around the Treasure State. In Central Idaho southwest of Salmon, the Black Eagle and Red Rock fires have merged and remain very active. These wildfires have burned a combined 70,000 acres. The Daly fire burning east of Hamilton in the Sapphire Mountains has grown over 8,000 acres. The fire is 56% contained and it is the largest staffed wildfire in Montana, with 182 people working on it.

See the latest Air Resource Advisor report from Central Idaho and Southwest Montana here

At 9:00 AM Thursday, Libby, Hamilton, Butte, Great Falls, Lewistown, Helena, Dillon, Billings, Broadus, Miles City, Glendive, and Sidney were enduring Moderate air quality.

Thursday morning’s satellite shows clouds along and ahead of a frontal boundary pushing across Montana.

Source: NOAA

Forecast

Clouds and more seasonal air should help to moderate fire behavior some on existing wildfires on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Wednesday but will still be 5-10 degrees above average. A widely scattered shower or two is possible Thursday, but much of the precipitation will evaporate before reaching the surface. Smoke and haze will linger over Western Montana because of regional wildfires, particularly over Ravalli County and communities adjacent to the Daly fire burning in the Sapphire Mountains.

High pressure will reestablish itself over the Northern Rockies on Friday and stick around through the weekend. Unseasonably warm air will surge north in the Treasure State and near-record warmth is possible by this weekend. The combination of dry fuels, very warm temperatures, and gusty afternoon winds will produce erratic fire behavior on regional wildfires and increase surface smoke over the region. Expect the usual diurnal impacts from wildfire smoke under the ridge of high pressure, with pooling of smoke into valleys occurring after sunset leading to air quality impacts.

By the end of next week, forecast models are starting to come into better agreement regarding a pattern shift to our weather. It’s looking more and more like that we’ll see a trough swing across the Treasure State, bringing more typical fall temperatures. The trough will be accompanied by some much-needed precipitation. This should help moderate fire behavior and reduce surface smoke concentrations. Stay tuned!

By midday Friday, the HRRR smoke model shows heavy smoke surging into Western Montana from regional wildfires.

Source: HRRR Smoke

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Current Wildfires

Current Wildfires
Incident	State	location	acres	containment
Middle Fork Complex Fire: Bulldog and Nellie - IDBOF	Idaho	7 miles east of Garden Valley, ID	61,495	90%
Wapiti Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	10 miles west of Stanley, ID	127,261	85%
Snag Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	9.5 miles east of Cascade, Idaho	33,437	90%
Goat Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	8 miles SE of Cascade, Idaho	33,450	23%
Lava Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	12 miles SW of Cascade, ID	97,567	90%
Logan Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	The fire is centered around Edwardsburg, but has burned north, east, west and south of the community. It has moved into the Wilderness area. Krassel Ranger District, Payette National Forest	11,779	NA
2024 Valley Fire - IDIDS	Idaho	Boise Foothills near Warm Springs Avenue and Hwy 21	9,892	66%
Elkhorn Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	Krassel Ranger District, Payette National Forest	26,048	NA
South Selway Complex - IDNCF	Idaho	Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness	1,927	NA
Boulder Creek Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	Within Game Unit 12: located ten miles north of the Powell Ranger Station and 12 miles west of Lolo Hot Springs	40	NA
Grave Butte Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	Within Game Unit 12: located ten miles west of Jerry Johnson Campground and about half a mile from National Forest Service Road #107 (Saddle Camp Road)	23	NA
Surprise Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	Three and one-half miles NE of Hunter Peak, Fifteen miles NW of Darby, MT in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness	792	NA
Cracker Jack Complex - IDNCF	Idaho	Whistling Pig Canyon East of Jumbo Camp	5,240	NA
Parks Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	5,978	NA
Dollar Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	18 miles NE of Cascade, Idaho	4,360	8%
Chimney Fire - IDEIX	Idaho	9 miles northwest of Fairfield, ID	6,521	80%
Copper Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	2,129	NA
Burnt Creek Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	2,665	NA
Farrow Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	1,783	NA
Slab Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	50	50%
Moore Square Complex - IDNCF	Idaho	Both Fires are located in the Gospel-Hump Wilderness Area near Square Mountain	3,673	50%
Moose Creek Complex - IDNCF	Idaho	East Moose creek Bridge to Elbow Bend impacted	14,762	NA
Bulltrout Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	15 miles WNW OF Stanley, ID	271	92%
Robbin Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	Within Game Unit 12: located less than six and a half miles southwest of Powell Ranger Station and less than three and a half miles south of Wendover Campground	NA	NA
Bench Lake Fire - IDSTF	Idaho	8 miles south of Stanley, Idaho	2,595	90%
Oxbow Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	Near Oxbow dam in Hells Canyon	6,000	NA
Mowitch Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	Approximately three (3) miles north of Indian Creek on the MIddle Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness.	5,412	0%
Birch Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	The west side of the Middle Fork of the Salmon River on Norton Ridge on the Middle Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness	15,347	0%
Garden Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	Approximately two (2) miles southwest of the confluence of Panther Creek and the Main Salmon River on the North Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness	9,533	0%
Nugget Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	Approximately 40 miles west of Salmon on the North Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness, west of the Middle Fork of the Salmon River	994	0%
Vanity Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	37 NW West of Challis, Idaho	600	30%
Red Rock Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	15 miles west of Salmon, ID	62,431	14%
Black Eagle Fire - IDSCF	Idaho	21 miles west of Salmon	8,147	15%
Railroad-Daly Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Railroad Creek/ Skalkaho Creek confluence, 26 miles SE of Hamilton	10,590	NA
Sheep Creek - MTBDF	Montana	5 miles southwest of Bernice, MT	487	NA
Grouse - MTBDF	Montana	Ten miles southwest of Wise River, MT	6,100	NA
Ratio Mountain - MTBDF	Montana	15 miles northwest of Whitehall, MT.	2,091	NA
Sharrott Creek Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Three miles west of Stevensville, Montana	3,204	NA
Long Tom Fire - MTMTS	Montana	10 miles south of Anaconda, MT	57	57%
Johnson Fire - MTBRF	Montana	3 miles south of Springer Memorial Community in the East Fork of the Bitterroot	6,687	NA
Magruder Ridge Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Selway Bitterroot Wilderness	3,625	0%
Elkhorn Ridge - MTBRF	Montana	West Fork District	3,125	0%
Trail Ridge Fire - MTBDF	Montana	22 miles NW of Wisdom MT	18,138	80%
McDermott - MTBDF	Montana	17 miles northwest of Philipsburg, MT	427	NA
Marsh Creek - MTHLF	Montana	12 Miles Southeast of Lincoln, MT	151	0%
Remington Fire - MTGNF	Montana	14 miles NE of Leiter, WY, multiple counties in southeast Montana.	196,368	88%
Pentagon Fire - MTFNF	Montana	45 miles SE of Bigfork, MT	62	0%
Rail Ridge - OROCF	Oregon	Less than 1 mile south of Dayville, OR	173,530	89%
Bingham Fire - ORWIF	Oregon	Bingham Ridge: 2 miles east of Marion Forks and 10 miles south east of Idanha	199	65%
Willamette Complex Fires - South - ORWIF	Oregon	Willamette Complex South fires are 8 miles north and 8 to 22 miles S-SE of Oakridge.	24,386	NA
Red Fire - ORDEF	Oregon	Diamond Peak Wilderness, 16 miles west, north-west of Crescent Oregon.	2,993	15%
Tiger Creek Fire - ORUMF	Oregon	15 southeast of Walla Walla, WA.	573	11%
Homestead Complex - ORUPF	Oregon	Thirty miles northeast of Glide Oregon	11,073	35%
Diamond Complex - ORUPF	Oregon	18 miles southwest of Chemult, Oregon	11,141	90%
Lane 1 Fire - OR77S	Oregon	Approximately 16 miles SE of Springfield, OR	25,952	99%
Bachelor Complex Fires - ORDEF	Oregon	Mt Bachelor, 20 miles SW Bend, OR	13,334	63%
North Willamette Complex - ORWIF	Oregon	Willamette National Forest	5,492	NA
Whisky Creek Fire - ORMHF	Oregon	East fork of Herman Creek, 6 miles SE of Cascade Locks, OR	3,203	25%
Microwave Tower Fire - OR95S	Oregon	1 mile WSW of Mosier, OR	1,313	95%
Wiley Flat - OROCF	Oregon	10 miles southeast of Post, Oregon	30,186	98%
Buck Creek Fire - ORFWF	Oregon	12 miles southwest of Silver Lake in a semi-primitive area of the Forest with limited road access.	5,758	98%
Middle Fork Fire - ORCLP	Oregon	Crater Lake National Park; Middle Fork area	5,286	70%
Shoe Fly Fire - OR95S	Oregon	6 Miles NE of Mitchell, Oregon	26,817	89%
Copperfield Fire - OR98S	Oregon	10 miles east of Chiloquin, Oregon	3,822	94%
Lone Rock Fire - ORPRD	Oregon	Lonerock stretching to west of HWY 207 and south to HWY 19	137,222	98%
Battle Mountain Complex - OR97S	Oregon	West and south of Ukiah, OR	183,026	94%
Warner Peak Fire - ORSHR	Oregon	3 miles East of Plush, on the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge	65,866	85%
Town Gulch - ORWWF	Oregon	Eagle Creek Rd Area, 24 Miles East of Baker City OR, 8 Miles N of Richland, OR	18,220	89%
Cliff Mountain - ORWWF	Oregon	25 Miles East of Joseph, Oregon	1,108	75%
Porcupine Fire - ORBUD	Oregon	Porcupine Reservoir	6,491	95%
Badland Complex 2024 - ORVAD	Oregon	Baker County, Oregon	54,563	99%
Durkee Fire - ORVAD	Oregon	1 mile west of Durkee, Oregon	294,265	95%
Cow Valley Fire - ORVAD	Oregon	West of Brogan and Northwest of Vale	133,490	99%
Williams Mine Fire-GPNF - WAGPF	Washington	3.5 miles NNW of Trout Lake WA	13,092	32%
Ruby Fire - WANCP	Washington	On Ruby Mountain in North Cascade National Park by Diablo and Ross Lake, 9 miles East of Newhalem	1,336	0%
Pincer Two Fire - WAMSF	Washington	Johannesburg Mountain. 1 Mile East of Mineral Park Campground	211	0%
Easy Fire - WAOWF	Washington	North Cascades Hwy 20 Corridor, 17 air miles west of Mazama, WA	2,130	36%
Retreat - WASES	Washington	14 miles WSE of Naches, WA	45,601	85%
Lodgepole - WAOWF	Washington	16 miles west of Cliffdell, WA	35	6%
Cougar Creek Fire - WASES	Washington	1 mile west of Hwy 129 and Grand Ronde river intersection	24,091	80%
Kachess Complex - WAOWF	Washington	12 miles west of Cle Elum drainage	23	NA
Elk Fire 2024 - WYBHF	Wyoming	Bighorn National Forest	76,378	15%
House Draw Fire - WYHPD	Wyoming	9 Mile SE of Buffalo	174,547	94%
Clearwater - WYSHF	Wyoming	11 Miles West of Wapiti, Wyoming	1,966	91%
Pack Trail Fire - WYBTF	Wyoming	2 miles northeast of the confluence of the South Fork and North Fork of Fish Creek	66,029	0%
Leeds Creek - WYBTF	Wyoming	16 Miles Southwest of Dubois, WY	780	75%

Source: Inciweb

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2024