Smoke Forecast for September 4, 2024 9:30 AM

September 04 2024

Current Conditions

A trough of low pressure exits the state on Wednesday. A scattered shower or storm is possible over the central and eastern portions of the state.

There are numerous active fires burning in the Bitterroot Mountains of Idaho and Montana. These fires will continue to spread smoke into portions of Western Montana in the coming days. The largest of the group is the Wye fire burning 30 miles west of Hamilton. This fire has burned more than 9,200 acres and is 0% contained.

There are several fires burning in Western Montana continue to slowly expand. The Grouse fire burning just east of Wisdom has burned more than 4,800 acres and is 22% contained. The Johnson fire burning just east of Sula has burned more than 3,800 acres and is 0% contained. It is largely burning on land with no known fire history, so there is plenty of fuel for this fire. The Sharrott Creek fire just west of Stevensville is the largest staffed wildfire in the state, with 650 personnel assigned to it. has burned around 2,400 acres and is 0% contained. Lastly, the Ratio Mountain fire burning east of Butte has burned more than 1,200 acres. The fire received a good soaking on Tuesday, and the blaze is now 54% contained.

The Remington fire started in Wyoming on August 22. It is burning in mainly grassland and scrubland. The fire quickly expanded north into Montana and has now burned nearly 200,000 acres. The Remington fire is now 88% contained.

At 9:00 AM Wednesday air quality is Unhealthy in Sidney and Glendive. Air quality is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Hamilton. Libby, Thompson Falls, Frenchtown, Columbia Falls, Cut Bank, Great Falls, Sleeping Giant, Butte, Dillon, Malta, Miles City, and Broadus were enduring Moderate air quality.

Wednesday morning’s satellite shows light smoke over Western Montana, with heavier smoke over the southern half of Idaho.

Source: NOAA

Forecast

A trough of low pressure is shifting east across the Treasure State on Wednesday. It will produce rain and scattered thunderstorms, primarily east of I-15. Some of the stronger storms will produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Apart from areas adjacent to wildfires, Western Montana will enjoy a reprieve from heavy surface smoke with the upper-level flow remaining out of the north on Wednesday.

On Thursday and Friday, a ridge of high pressure builds over Montana. It will begin a dramatic warming trend, with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Despite this ridge, the upper-level flow will still be out of the west, which should keep much of the smoke from large wildfires burning in Idaho south of Montana. Areas adjacent to wildfires, like the Bitterroot and Big Hole Valleys, will see the usual diurnal fluctuations in surface smoke. High pressure will allow the smoke to pool and drain into the valleys, leading to deteriorating air quality overnight and early in the morning.

Starting Saturday, the upper-level flow turns around to the southwest. This will lead to more widespread surface smoke impacts over Montana due to the massive wildfires burning in Idaho. Expect deteriorating air quality across the western half of the state for the upcoming weekend. The ridge finally breaks down by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This should lead to a cooler and wetter weather pattern across the Treasure State. It should also help to reduce smoke production and moderate fire behavior on existing wildfires in the region. Stay tuned!

By late Thursday, the HRRR smoke model shows much of the heaviest smoke remaining south and west of Montana.

Source: HRRR Smoke

Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.

Current Wildfires

Current Wildfires
Incident	State	location	acres	containment
Wapiti Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	2 miles southwest of Grandjean, ID	110,425	4%
Goat Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	11 miles SE of Cascade, Idaho	3,265	0%
Snag Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	9.5 miles East of Cascade, Idaho	31,809	1%
Dollar Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	18 miles NE of Cascade, Idaho	4,010	0%
Boulder Fire - IDBOF	Idaho	9 Miles Southwest of Cascade, Idaho.	2,868	36%
Limepoint Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	8 miles NE of Oxbow Dam	32,998	95%
Middle Fork Complex Fire: Bulldog, Nellie, Anderson - IDBOF	Idaho	9 miles east of Garden Valley, ID	57,466	23%
Anchor Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	About half way between Hanover Mountain and Square Mountain in the Gospel Hump Wilderness	400	NA
Ace Butte Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	Approximately 30 miles Southeast of Grangeville, Idaho	152	NA
Wye Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	East Moose creek Bridge to Elbow Bend impacted	7,739	NA
Cracker Jack Complex - IDNCF	Idaho	All four fires are located within half a mile of each other: two and a half miles east of Concord, ID, less than a quarter acre east from Square Lake and less than a quarter acre west from Fish Lake.	1,345	NA
Wolf Creek Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	11 Miles NW of Cascade, ID	1,154	95%
Parks Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	3,850	NA
Farrow Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	900	NA
Burnt Creek Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	NA	2,497	NA
Mineral Fire - IDPAF	Idaho	The fire is located approximately 12 miles north of Steck Park along the Snake River.	15,000	0%
Surprise Fire - IDNCF	Idaho	Three and one-half miles NE of Hunter Peak, Fifteen miles NW of Darby, MT in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness	40	NA
Red Rock Fire - IDSCF	Idaho, United States	15 miles west of Salmon, ID	165	0%
Black Eagle Fire - IDSCF	Idaho, United States	21 miles west of Salmon	1,922	NA
Sharrott Creek Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Three miles west of Stevensville, Montana	2,873	23%
Johnson Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Johnson fire is located in and out of the A-P wilderness & community of Springer	3,812	0%
Grouse - MTBDF	Montana	Ten miles southwest of Wise River, MT	4,822	22%
Remington Fire - MTGNF	Montana	14 miles NE of Leiter, WY, multiple counties in southeast Montana.	196,368	88%
Railroad-Daly Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Railroad Creek/ Skalkaho Creek confluence, 26 miles SE of Hamilton	160	0%
Elkhorn Ridge - MTBRF	Montana	West Fork District	2,482	0%
Magruder Ridge Fire - MTBRF	Montana	Selway Bitterroot Wilderness	800	0%
Marsh Creek - MTHLF	Montana	12 Miles Southeast of Lincoln, MT	88	0%
Ratio Mountain - MTBDF	Montana	15 miles northwest of Whitehall, MT.	1,158	NA
McElwain Fire - MTMTS	Montana	10 miles west of Helmville, MT	116	50%
Big Hollow Fire - MTMTS	Montana	36 miles southwest of Dillon, MT	3,435	90%
Rail Ridge - OROCF	Oregon	Approx. 7 miles south of Dayville, OR	61,433	0%
North Willamette Complex - ORWIF	Oregon	Willamette National Forest	4,588	NA
Whisky Creek Fire - ORMHF	Oregon	East fork of Herman Creek, 6 miles SE of Cascade Locks, OR	2,097	25%
Middle Fork Fire - ORCLP	Oregon	Crater Lake National Park; Middle Fork area	5,286	55%
Diamond Complex - ORUPF	Oregon	18 miles southwest of Chemult, Oregon	11,141	79%
Willamette Complex Fires - South - ORWIF	Oregon	Willamette Complex South fires are 8 miles north and 8 to 22 miles S-SE of Oakridge.	13,644	64%
Copperfield Fire - OR98S	Oregon	10 miles east of Chiloquin, Oregon	3,656	0%
Red Fire - ORDEF	Oregon	Diamond Peak Wilderness, 16 miles west, north-west of Crescent Oregon.	851	0%
Cottage Grove - Lane 1 - OR77S	Oregon	Approximately 16 miles SE of Springfield, OR	25,305	97%
Homestead Complex - ORUPF	Oregon	Thirty miles northeast of Glide Oregon	5,918	60%
Sandstone Fire - ORMHF	Oregon	9 miles SW of Ripplebrook, OR, on the Mt. Hood National Forest	702	75%
Shoe Fly Fire - OR95S	Oregon	NA	20,247	0%
Crazy Creek - OROCF	Oregon	Crazy Creek:16 miles north of Paulina, OR	86,968	95%
Microwave Tower Fire - OR95S	Oregon	1 mile WSW of Mosier, OR	1,313	95%
Williams Mine Fire-GPNF - WAGPF	Washington	3.5 miles NNW of Trout Lake WA	12,661	31%
Ruby Fire - WANCP	Washington	On Ruby Mountain in North Cascade National Park by Diablo and Ross Lake, 9 miles East of Newhalem	959	0%
Pioneer - WASES	Washington	Approximate start 10 miles southeast of Stehekin, WA	38,735	23%
Pincer Two Fire - WAMSF	Washington	Johannesburg Mountain. 1 Mile East of Mineral Park Campground	211	0%
Easy Fire - WAOWF	Washington	North Cascades Hwy 20 Corridor, 17 air miles west of Mazama, WA	2,130	36%
Retreat - WASES	Washington	14 miles WSE of Naches, WA	45,601	85%

Source: Inciweb

Tags: Smoke Forecast 2024