Smoke Forecast for Friday, June 27, 2025, 11:30 AM
Current Conditions
There is a slight dip in temperatures today into tomorrow as a system moves out of the state. Scattered showers were experienced across northwest Montana this morning. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon throughout southwest Montana. The cooler temperatures and rain may help mitigate fire activity. Thankfully, precipitation accompanied by cooler temperatures over the past week helped limit fire behavior from the 493-acre Jericho Mountain Fire southwest of Helena. The fire crews are still working on containment, which has been difficult given the terrain and fuel types. It is currently around 15 percent containment. Weak westerly winds are expected in Helena today, which should carry smoke impacts south of the greater Helena valley towards Montana City and Clancy. Satellite imagery shows smoke impacts from out-of-state sources mostly bypassing Montana today. However, slight impacts may be felt in the Bitterroot throughout the day.
At 11:30 AM Friday, air quality at the Helena, Sleeping Giant, Great Falls, Malta, Libby, and Billings monitors was reported as Moderate.
Forecast
Scattered showers continue to move through northwest Montana this morning. This convection is anticipated to diminish during the mid to late morning hours. This afternoon, the atmosphere appears to become unstable enough for a few storms to develop across southwest Montana. These storms do not appear to be as strong as what was experienced yesterday, but lightning and moderate to heavy rainfall could be present in some areas. Gusty westerly winds are also expected to develop this afternoon as gusts up to 30 mph will be possible.
A weak trough will be over the Northern Rockies today and tomorrow, keeping temperatures near seasonal, along with some scattered shower activity. Northwest Montana, along the Continental Divide, appear to have the best chance of reviving showers, especially during the afternoon hours.
A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the region Sunday into the first part of next week, causing temperatures to warm dramatically. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be around 10 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year in the Northern Rockies.
The models continue to indicate that the Northern Rockies will return to a more active weather pattern for the latter part of next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures are anticipated to cool slightly but remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Conditions can change quickly as weather could stimulate active fires and the likelihood of new starts increases. Please keep track of concentrations at todaysair.mtdeq.us or the Fire and Smoke Map.
The HRRR smoke model predicts extremely low wildfire smoke impacts across Montana today, coming from out-of-state sources.
Source: HRRR-smoke
Tags: Smoke Forecast 2025