Climate Change & Tourism
Introduction
Tourism is a major lynchpin of the Montana economy. More than 10 million people visit Montana each year, spending $2.9 billion. Tourism and recreation support about 48,000 jobs in the state. Tourists come to see the national parks and the spectacular scenery that stretches between them. They also come to fish and hunt, to ski and snowmobile, and to raft rivers and enjoy lakes and reservoirs. Montanans can legitimately ask how climate change might affect tourism in the state.
A recent survey of those operating tourist-related businesses in the state reported that 32 percent of respondents replied that they were “very concerned” about Climate Change with another 36 percent responding to being “somewhat concerned.”
According to the Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research (MBBER), temperature changes have already had an impact on Montana’s tourism industry. For example, recent low summer flows along certain streams and rivers has forced the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife & Parks to close some of the state’s most storied streams to fishing. Record-breaking temperatures in July 2007 triggered stream closures earlier than in previous years. Twenty-nine of Montana’s best known trout streams were closed that season as flows decreased and water temperatures warmed.
Rafting and floating of Montana rivers are a major portion of the outfitting and guiding subsector of tourism. According to statistics compiled by the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, almost 120,000 people paid to raft or float a Montana stream in 2005. That’s about 38 percent of all outfitted clients. Fishing clients, while a smaller percentage at 20 percent, bring in more revenue. Guided fishing is estimated to have earned almost $31 million for outfitters in 2005 – about 30 percent of revenue. Clearly, this sector of tourism is particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions.
The MBBER recently examined key sectors of the state’s economy in the context of warming global temperatures. University of Montana climatologist Steve Running, PhD, met with a panel of economists and experts within the various sectors to discuss climate change and the Montana economy. The remarks were reviewed and edited for the summer 2007 edition of the bureau’s journal, Montana Business Quarterly. Some of the following material is derived from that lead article with permission from the editor of the journal.
One way tourism-based businesses have coped with midsummer drought and forest fires is to encourage people to come to Montana earlier. Fishing outfitters are starting in March, a month earlier than usual. It’s warmer in March and smoky skies and dry rivers aren’t usually a threat until later in the summer. Other tourist-oriented businesses might consider pushing their active seasons earlier, panelists said.
The 2005 through 2008 seasons were good snow years for Montana’s ski areas. Nearly 1.3 million skier visits were recorded for the 2005-06 ski year – a banner year for the industry in Montana. The 2006-2007 season dropped back to less than 1.25 million visits. The 2004-05 year was a poor snow year, with just under 1 million skier visits. According to the Census Bureau, Montana has 17 ski areas that employ more than 1,100 people. Ski resorts will continue to be vulnerable as the climate changes, the panelists agreed.
Many Missoula area locals grew up skiing at Marshall Mountain about 10 miles east of town. The base elevation of Marshall is at 3,900 feet with the summit at 5,400. The area had been in operation since the late 1930s, but Marshall struggled with snow cover for years. Lifts have not operated since 2004, at least partially due to poor snow cover.
All resorts will likely experience shorter seasons. The panelists noted that ski areas might consider more summer recreation opportunities – hiking and mountain biking – to offset shorter winters.
Forests and recreation areas have also been closed in recent seasons due to wildfire danger. Panelists see wildfires as probably the number one problem for the tourism industry, with de-watering of streams coming in second.
Panelists thought the effects on wildlife hunting and viewing caused by climate changes would probably not hurt that niche of tourism. Many big game animals will benefit from milder winters and have the ability to change elevations with the climate. However, big game hunting seasons may be adjusted accordingly. In recent years, general big-game seasons have twice been extended by about two weeks into December. This has been at least partially due to wildlife remaining at more remote high elevations later into the hunting season.
About 19,000 people engaged outfitters to hunt in Montana in 2005. Although a smaller number than those seeking to raft rivers or to fish, these clients brought in the most revenue that year – about $40 million to recreation operators and outfitters.
